File Descriptions

DeSart PS 2024 11-5-23.sav - The SPSS Data file that was used to generate the state-level point estimates for the 2024 forecast, and contains the values for the Home State Advantage variable found in Table 3. 

DeSart PS 2024 Long-Range Forecast Data.sav - The SPSS Data file that was used to generate the output file "Model Coefficients for 2024.spv." 

DeSart PS 2024 Model Coefficients for 2024.spv - The SPSS Output file that show the model coefficients and performance statistics displayed in Table 2.

DeSart PS 2024 Monte Carlo NPV and ECV.sps - The SPSS Syntax file used to generate the simulated election results found in DeSart PS 2024 Monte Carlo NPV and ECV Results.spv

DeSart PS 2024 Monte Carlo NPV and ECV Results.spv - The SPSS Output file with the national-level popular vote and Electoral College projections in Tables 4 and 5. 

DeSart PS 2024 October 2015 and 2019 polls.sav - The poll data used to create both the Actual Matchup and Overall Poll Averages for 2016 and 2020 in Table 1. 

DeSart PS 2024 Table 2 Foreast Errors.sav - The historical national result data to calculate the model performance each years.

DeSart PS 2024 2015 and 2019 Poll Means.spv - The SPSS Output file showing the actual matchup and overall poll means displayed in Table 1.

DeSart PS 2024 Figure 1.xlsx - The Microsoft Excel file containing the data and chart used in Figure 1.


Additional Data For Table 1:
The national two-party popular vote result in Column 1 were derived from FEC reports: 
  - https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf 
  - https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf
The original 2016 and 2020 Forecasts in Column 3 were taken from: 
  - DeSart, Jay. 2016. "A Long-Range, State-Level Presidential Election Forecast Model." Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA. September 3, 2016. Figure 4
  - DeSart, Jay. 2021. “A Long-Range State-Level Forecast of the 2020 Presidential Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 54 (1): 73–76, Table 2.
